Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
