A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
